Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet just won a major prize, one that might be an early predictor of its Academy Awards chances. Based on Maggie O’Farrell’s 2020 novel of the same name, Hamnet tells the fictional story of William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) and his wife, Agnes Shakespeare (Jessie Buckley), following the death of their 11-year-old son, Hamnet, and how it ultimately led to the iconic play Hamlet. Since debuting at the 52nd Telluride Film Festival, Hamnet has been getting rave reviews from critics and audiences, with the movie gaining significant award season buzz.
Hamnet just won the Toronto International Film Festival’s people’s choice award, making Chloé Zhao the first ever to nab the award twice, following her win for Nomadland, according to Variety. Hamnet beat out Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, which won the second and third place spots, respectively. The TIFF People’s Choice Awards have become a strong indicator of potential Best Picture nominees, as since 2008, when Slumdog Millionaire won, every TIFF winner has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture, with the exception of 2011’s Where Do We Go Now?, and last year’s’ winner, Life of Chuck, which didn’t get released until 2025 and now faces an uphill battle.
‘Hamnet’ Has Become the Early Oscar Front-Runner
Since 2008, five films that won the Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award went on to win Best Picture. Those titles include 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and 2020’s Nomadland. Last year’s Best Picture winner, Anora, actually came in third place, as did 2019’s Best Picture winner Parasite. Meanwhile, past winners like Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Jojo Rabbit, Belfast, and The Fabelmans have all been nominated for Best Picture.
In fact, since Slumdog Millionaire, every winner that went on to win the People’s Choice Awards at TIFF that was nominated for Best Picture has earned at least one win in an Oscar category, except for The Fabelmans. Some examples include American Fiction and Belfast winning Best Original Screenplay, while Room, La La Land, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri all secured acting wins at the Academy Awards. Life of Chuck still remains a wild card that could break this streak, but many suspect it might manage to score a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. Even if Hamnet doesn’t win Best Picture, its win at TIFF might indicate potential wins for stars Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley or a Best Adapted Screenplay win.
Hamnet has done a great job building buzz in the early parts of the award season, and Focus Features is not slowing down. Hament will have a limited theatrical release on November 27, 2025, before expanding on December 12, just as many of the big awards contenders are being released. Up next are sequels to past Best Picture nominees like Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked for Good, as well as other awards contenders like One Battle After Another. Still, Hamnet has quickly become the early front-runner. The question is, can it sustain this momentum, or will it slow down as voting begins?
